During a recent campaign rally, Donald Trump’s statement about a potential stock market crash if he doesn’t win the 2024 presidential election has raised doubts among investors. Financial experts consider these remarks as typical “Trump bravado” and find little substance to support such alarming predictions.
Brian Gardner, the chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, views Trump’s warnings as mere bluster and does not anticipate a significant market downturn if Trump is not re-elected. He suggests that the post-election period might instead witness a market upswing due to the relief of the election outcome.
David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, shares a similar perspective, noting the difficulty in accurately forecasting market behavior, especially in a politically charged environment.
Trump’s recent claims are reminiscent of his previous warnings in 2020 about a market crash if Joe Biden won the presidency. However, those predictions turned out to be false, as demonstrated by the market’s positive performance post-Biden’s election. The Dow, for instance, surged nearly 12% in November 2020, its best month since January 1987, and the S&P 500 soared 34% to new record highs under Biden’s administration.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, also pointed out the disparity between Trump’s predictions and the actual market trends. Despite prior warnings, the market continued to climb, registering substantial gains over time.
Overall, investors and market analysts are cautious about Trump’s alarming forecasts. The market has displayed steady growth in recent months, driven by factors such as a strengthening economy, robust corporate earnings, and lower interest rates. The prevailing opinion is that economic fundamentals play a more critical role in influencing market trends than political prophecies.
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