The S&P 500 fell for six days in a row and made a new year-to-date low on Sept. 27, but Bitcoin (BTC) maintained its outperformance and stayed well above its June low. This could be a positive sign because markets that show strength on the way down are the ones that outperform in the event of a recovery.
The United States equities markets rebounded sharply on Sept. 28 after the Bank of England announced a bond-buying program and the U.S. Treasury yields pulled back from multi-year highs. As this occurred, strong buying in Bitcoin took place, but BTC was unable to break above its overhead resistance.
A ray of hope for cryptocurrency traders is that October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin. Barring 2014 and 2018, Bitcoin has managed a positive close in October every year since 2013, according to data from Coinglass.
Although history favors a bounce in October, traders should be careful because the macroeconomic situation is unprecedented and remains a challenge.
Could Bitcoin and altcoins close September on a strong note? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin soared above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($19,576) on Sept. 27 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This evaporated all intraday gains. The bears pounced on this opportunity and tried to sink the price below the immediate support of $18,626 on Sept. 28 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels.
The positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) remains intact and is pointing to a possible recovery. If the price breaks and sustains above the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a rally to the downtrend line increases. The bears are likely to defend this level with vigor.
If the price turns down from the downtrend line, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the 20-day EMA. A bounce off this level will suggest that the sentiment could be changing from selling on rallies to buying on dips. If buyers push the price above the downtrend line, the pair could reach $22,799.
To invalidate this bullish bias, the bears will have to sink the price below $18,125. The pair could then retest the June low of $17,622. A break below this support could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $14,500.
Ether (ETH) turned down sharply from the 20-day EMA ($1,411) on Sept. 27 but rebounded off the $1,262 support on Sept. 28. This shows that bears are selling on rallies and bulls are buying on dips.
The ETH/USDT pair is currently stuck between $1,250 and $1,410. If bulls push the price above the overhead resistance, the pair could rally to the resistance line of the descending channel. The bulls will have to surmount this obstacle to suggest a potential trend change.
If the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the support at $1,250, it will suggest that the selling pressure is building up. This could increase the likelihood of a break below the channel. The pair could then slide to the psychological level of $1,000.
The bulls nudged BNB above the resistance line of the descending channel pattern on Sept. 27 but they could not go past the 50-day SMA ($287). This attracted heavy selling and the price slipped back below the 20-day EMA ($276).
The long tail on the Sept. 28 candlestick shows that the bulls have not given up and may make another attempt to pierce the overhead resistance at the 50-day SMA. If they can pull it off, it will suggest a potential trend change in the short term. The BNB/USDT pair could first move up to $300 and then attempt a sprint to $338.
On the other hand, if the recovery turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that the bears are active at higher levels. The pair could then retest the immediate support at $258.
XRP’s sharp rally to $0.56 has retraced to the breakout level of $0.41. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is close to this level and the 20-day EMA ($0.41) is also nearby. Hence, buyers are likely to defend the level with all their might.
If the price rebounds off the current level, the XRP/USDT pair could attempt a rally to $0.47 and then to $0.52. The bears could offer a stiff resistance in this zone. If the price turns down from this zone, the pair could consolidate in a range for a few days.
The failure to defend the breakout level of $0.41 will suggest that the recent rally may have been a bear trap. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.37). If this support also cracks, the pair could complete a 100% retracement and tumble to $0.32.
The long wick on Cardano’s (ADA) Sept. 27 candlestick shows that bears continue to sell the recovery to the 20-day EMA ($0.46). The bears are trying to cement their advantage by sustaining the price below the uptrend line.
If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could slide to the crucial support of $0.40. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if they fail in their endeavor, the pair could resume its downtrend. The pair could then decline to $0.33.
On the upside, buyers will have to push the price above the moving averages to suggest that the selling pressure could be reducing. The pair could then rise to the downtrend line. A break above this level could open the doors for a possible recovery to $0.60.
Solana (SOL) attempted to break above the 50-day SMA ($35) on Sept. 27 but the bears were in no mood to let go of their advantage. They sold aggressively and pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA ($33).
If the SOL/USDT pair does not give up much ground from the current level, the buyers may again attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA. The repeated retest of a resistance level tends to weaken it and improves the prospects of a break above it. If the price rises above the 50-day SMA, the pair could rally to $39.
The bears may have other plans as they will try to sink the pair to the strong support at $30. If this support collapses, the pair could retest the June low at $26.
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recovery faded just above the 50-day SMA ($0.07) on Sept. 24 and the price slipped back near the strong support at $0.06 on Sept. 28.
The 20-day EMA ($0.06) is flattening out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. If bears want to assert their dominance, they will have to sink and sustain the price below the immediate support near $0.06. That could result in a retest of the June low near $0.05.
If bulls want to tilt the advantage in their favor in the near term, they will have to push and sustain the price above the overhead resistance at $0.07. The DOGE/USDT pair could then start its journey to $0.09.
Related: Bitcoin holds $19K, but volatility expected as Friday’s $2.2B BTC options expiry approaches
Polkadot’s (DOT) rebound off the strong support at $6 fizzled out near the 20-day EMA ($6.68) on Sept. 27. This indicates that the bears have not given up and are selling on every minor rally.
The price is getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA and the support at $6. This uncertainty could resolve with a strong range breakout but it is difficult to predict the direction with certainty. Therefore, it is better to wait for the breakout to happen before taking directional bets.
If the price plummets below $6, the DOT/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend and dive to $4. On the contrary, if the price explodes above the 20-day EMA, the pair could climb to the 50-day SMA ($7.37) and then to the overhead resistance at $8.
Polygon (MATIC) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.78) on Sept. 27, indicating that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies to resistance levels.
The bears will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the $0.72 to $0.69 support zone. If this zone gives way, the selling could pick up momentum and the MATIC/USDT pair could drop to $0.62. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory indicate a minor advantage to bears.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the support zone, the bulls will again try to drive the pair above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.84).
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.000011) for the past few days, indicating that the bulls are not dumping their positions as they anticipate the price to move higher.
If bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the SHIB/USDT pair could rise to the overhead resistance at $0.000014. The bears may mount a strong resistance at this level but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could start its march toward $0.000018.
This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the support at $0.000010. The pair could then drop toward the important support at $0.000007.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
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