Grayscale Investments is awaiting a decision on its lawsuit against the federal securities regulator, which could come before the end of the week. The company has been seeking to convert its Bitcoin trust into a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
According to Scott Johnsson, a general partner of Van Buren Capital, August is a month when law clerks in the United States District Courts cycle out, which leads judges to clear out their caseload before the new clerks arrive. Johnsson highlighted that in March 2021 and 2022, 30 out of 32 cases were heard within 160 days of oral testimony, coinciding with the month of August. It has now been 160 days since Grayscale delivered its oral arguments on March 7 in its suit against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
March ’21/’22 cases with decisions within 160 days of oral: 30/32 (94%)
Days since Grayscale (March ’23) oral: 160 days
Why should we expect August? Because law clerks for DC generally cycle in/out this month, so judges aim to clear prior caseload before the new guard arrives. https://t.co/vVj0dHus90
— Scott Johnsson (@SGJohnsson) August 14, 2023
Johnsson added that there are only a small number of unresolved March-argued cases remaining, including Grayscale.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart suggests that the decision could come as early as August 15, a date he has considered for some time as the “theoretical Grayscale lawsuit decision date.”
8/15 has been my theoretical Grayscale lawsuit decision date for a while now but it’s really just an educated guess. I didn’t even do detailed analysis on the court decisions like @SGJohnsson did. But I did a little bit of it and also had convos with @NYCStein about timelines
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 14, 2023
Johnsson mentioned in his thread that Seyffart’s prediction is highly plausible.
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In June 2022, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rejected Grayscale’s application to convert its GBTC to a spot Bitcoin ETF. In response, Grayscale filed a lawsuit against the securities regulator, alleging inconsistent treatment of similar investment vehicles.
Several industry commentators, including Cathie Wood from ARK Invest and ETF analyst Nate Geraci, have predicted that Grayscale will prevail in the lawsuit.
A lot of noise out there, so here’s my formal prediction on spot bitcoin ETF…
First, I think Grayscale wins lawsuit.
Second, combo of Grayscale lawsuit win + COIN SSA is enough for SEC approval IMO.
In other words, I think we’re getting a spot bitcoin ETF. Like close to 100%.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) August 9, 2023
Grayscale recently advocated for the simultaneous approval of all Bitcoin spot ETF applications by the SEC, to ensure fair treatment and prevent any advantages for certain firms over others.
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