The bears are aiming to push Bitcoin (BTC) below $19,000 to strengthen their position in the crypto market. Analysts tracking Bitcoin’s MVRV-Z Score, which determines its price compared to its “fair value,” predict a further decline before reaching a bottom.
Despite this, economist Alex Krueger noted that Bitcoin’s volume hit a record high in June. Typically, peak volume during a downtrend signals capitulation and often marks major bottoms. Following the pattern observed in the 2018 bear market, Krueger anticipates the bottom to form in July.
Considering the close link between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, crypto traders will closely monitor the performance of the US equity markets next week. This may be influenced by the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and the June jobs report.
Will Bitcoin establish a higher low and lead the crypto markets towards recovery? Let’s delve into the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies indicating a potential relief rally in the near term.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin’s price action on July 1 reflects bearish sentiment, with selling pressure near the 20-day exponential moving average ($21,396). Although the price briefly dropped below $19,637, the bears failed to sustain downward momentum.
Bulls are now striving to push the price back above $19,637. A successful move could lead the BTC/USDT pair towards the 20-day EMA. Breaking and closing above $22,000 might signal a shift in the trend, paving the way for a rally to the 50-day simple moving average ($25,938).
On the other hand, a rejection at the current level could indicate ongoing bearish control. Sellers may target pushing the price below $18,626, with a potential slide towards the critical support zone of $17,960 to $17,622.
The battle at this support zone is crucial for the bulls, as a failure to hold could trigger a further downtrend towards $15,000. The 4-hour chart suggests strong bearish defense near the 20-EMA, with both moving averages trending downward and the RSI in the negative territory.
Breaking below $18,626 could solidify bearish momentum, while a move above the 20-EMA might provide temporary relief. A successful breach of resistance levels could propel the pair towards $21,000 and potentially $22,000.
SHIB/USDT
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been ranging near moving averages as bulls aim to establish a higher low around $0.000009. Consolidation typically precedes a breakout.
A move above the 50-day SMA ($0.000010) could fuel momentum for the SHIB/USDT pair, targeting levels at $0.000012 and potentially $0.000014. Conversely, a break below $0.000009 may trap buyers and lead to a retest of $0.000007, signaling a downtrend continuation.
The 4-hour chart reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern, with price confined between the 20-EMA and the triangle’s support. A breakdown below support could drive prices lower, targeting $0.000009. Conversely, breaching the 20-EMA may push the pair towards resistance levels at $0.000011 and $0.000012.
MATIC/USDT
Polygon (MATIC) faced resistance near $0.61, prompting a dip below the 20-day EMA ($0.50). However, buyers stepped in to prevent further decline, indicating a possible recovery attempt.
Trading near the 20-day EMA suggests bullish efforts to surpass resistance levels. A successful move above $0.61 could open the path for a rally towards $0.75, with the RSI showing a positive divergence.
Conversely, failure to sustain above current levels and dropping below $0.41 might suggest a bearish rally. Sellers could target crucial support at $0.31, marking a renewed downtrend.
The 4-hour chart depicts a struggle near the $0.50 psychological level, with a potential downside towards $0.41 if support weakens. Conversely, a rebound might signal bullish intent, targeting resistance levels at $0.55 and $0.61.
ATOM/USDT
Cosmos (ATOM) is attempting to reverse its downtrend by surpassing the 20-day EMA ($7.84). However, the 50-day SMA ($8.81) poses a strong resistance barrier.
Flat 20-day EMA and RSI near the midpoint indicate reduced selling pressure. Clearing the 50-day SMA could trigger bullish momentum, potentially pushing the ATOM/USDT pair towards $10.84 and $12.50, signaling a trend change.
A reversal from current levels, breaking below $6.89, might lead to a retest of critical support at $5.55. The 4-hour chart suggests attempts to establish support at the 50-SMA, with resistance levels at $8.38 and $8.75 to watch for potential upswings.
APE/USDT
ApeCoin (APE) briefly breached the 20-day EMA ($4.69) but retraced below it afterward. While maintaining above this level, buyers are eyeing an upmove towards the 50-day SMA ($5.72).
In case of a break below $4.21, a decline to $3.85 is probable. The symmetrical triangle formation on the 4-hour chart indicates indecisiveness, with potential directions on a breakout or breakdown.
Sustaining above the triangle could favor buyers, targeting $5.38 and $5.57. Conversely, a downside move might favor bears, pushing the pair towards $3.78.
These analyses emphasize potential price movements and critical levels to watch for each cryptocurrency in the current market conditions.
Image Source: Varga Jozsef Zoltan/shutterstock
