A convergence of volatile factors may push the market to a breaking point.
The current situation in the United States is undeniably tense, particularly with the looming presidential election and various other significant issues. The high level of tension is leading emotionally drained investors to consider withdrawing their investments at the first sight of trouble. A significant withdrawal of funds from investments typically results in a market crash.
While a market crash in Q4 is not a certainty, economists are closely monitoring a series of events that are causing stress both in the market itself and among investors. It is hoped that these issues will be resolved in the near future. However, if several of these problems worsen, it could trigger a financial crisis.
One of the most prominent concerns currently is the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The messaging around reopening varies widely across states, with some pushing for rapid reopening while others maintain strict quarantine measures. This confusion, coupled with a continuous rise in COVID-19 cases, could potentially lead to widespread shutdowns either nationally or locally. The key to addressing this crisis lies in the swift development and efficient distribution of a successful vaccine. If these steps falter, the problem will persist.
Business owners, both small and large, have had to resort to federal emergency loans due to the economic impact of the pandemic. Although the overall state of the country has improved compared to six months ago, many businesses are still struggling to return to full operation and generate previous levels of revenue. Consequently, a significant number of these loans may become delinquent in the near future, along with defaults on mortgage, credit, and rental payments. When the flow of funds is disrupted from all directions, the financial market’s stability is at risk.
It is evident that the United States is grappling with a profound level of uncertainty. While each factor has the potential to destabilize the market on its own, the convergence of all these challenges simultaneously could result in a severe market crash.
